MOCO'S MILLENNIAL PROBLEM: BLAME COUNTY'S WEAK JOB GROWTH, SAYS DEVELOPER OF BETHESDA CONDOS

One of the big puzzles (for some) in Montgomery County is, how can more millennials be attracted to live and work here? Two panelists at Bisnow's Montgomery County Boom! event last week at the Marriott North Bethesda Conference Center managed to dodge the popular myths, and hit the nail on the head.

Stephen Alfandre of Toll Brothers City Living, which is currently building the Hampden Row luxury condos in downtown Bethesda, got it right. Alfandre argued "poor job growth in Montgomery is holding [attraction of millennials] back," according to Bisnow. His examples of locations where efforts have been more successful - Arlington County and DC's 14th Street - both share one thing in common: proximity to high-wage government, defense and government contracting jobs. If Montgomery County can add more of those type of jobs, it will provide the same draw for young professionals.

Rich Jordan of The JBG Companies identified another major draw - affordable housing. Although, one could argue, if there were enough new high-wage jobs, that would increase the spending power of millennials for housing. If you look where the studies show millennials are currently located in downtown Bethesda, they are clustered most in the Battery Lane and Bradley Boulevard corridors. With demolitions of several older apartment buildings already approved for Battery, that street will have a net loss in affordable units. We're hearing more and more rumors about redevelopment (a.k.a. demolition of existing housing) in the Bradley area, as well. Those ideas will have to be reversed, if Montgomery really is serious about retaining the millennials it has now, much less attracting new ones.

I give both of these guys credit for cutting through the nightlife/"vibrant places" baloney. Millennials vacation and party in Las Vegas, but they sure as heck aren't moving there like they are to DC, Rosslyn, Pentagon City, Clarendon, etc. to start their professional careers.

TEXAS HAS JOBS, GROWTH, AND...DAVE AND BUSTER'S!

With the demolition-bound White Flint Mall having given Dave and Buster's the boot from Montgomery County 2 weeks ago, I couldn't help but notice this article on the contrasting situation in Texas. Unlike Montgomery County, the Lone Star State is booming with tech and industrial jobs, and is a major destination for millennials seeking employment.

Where we now have no Dave and Buster's, Houston is about to welcome its third D&B in 2015. As suburban areas are again outpacing urban ones in growth nationwide, Houston's newest D&B will be in an indoor mall (that is rapidly-expanding its square footage by 50%), not an urban "town center."

MONTGOMERY COUNTY BRT BACKFIRE AT COUNTY FAIR

The latest gaffe in the effort to sell a skeptical public on Bus Rapid Transit was a photo op that backfired at the Montgomery County Fair. After several years of claiming BRT vehicles would be futuristic, and more like railcars than buses, a BRT vehicle presented to media at the fair looked...exactly like a bus! Inside and out, the vehicle resembled the Metro buses we ride all over the DC area today. Just how this would help overcome the lower ridership potential of buses versus rail was not explained.

I'm also curious - who paid to transport this vehicle to the fair, and for all of the display materials and signage? It would be very costly to do so. Was this lobbying by a company for the theoretical fleet contract? An organization (financially backed by whom?)? Or was it paid for by the taxpayers?

The media blitz contained no mention of the 155 homes and businesses that would be condemned between Olney and Wheaton alone to build the BRT line along Georgia Avenue. What would be condemned in Rockville and Bethesda for a line that duplicates the Red Line, and dumps downtown DC-bound commuters short of the DC-MD line?

Signage promoted "Rapid Transit" (note they dropped the "bus" part), but the vehicle screamed "bus."  At a speed of 12 miles in 50 minutes, they may want to consider dropping the "Rapid" term, as well. While there was no indication of who paid for the BRT vehicle, there was also no indication of how the BRT system will be paid for.

Overall, there seems to be a much more compelling need to finance 8-car trains for Metro with some of the $5 billion that would be spent on BRT. We know Metro - as with rail transit in general - would have higher ridership than BRT. Increased capacity on the Red Line would be far more effective in accommodating current and future development in downtown Bethesda, and along Rockville Pike. It would also avoid the currently-planned seizure of automobile lanes for BRT, which would reduce auto capacity on that congested corridor by 33%.

Rail transit, and a new Potomac River crossing, would have far greater impact on economic development and job creation than BRT.

MOCO, DC DON'T MAKE TECH JOBS TOP 25 LIST; VA EXURBS DO

An interesting piece in USA Today on the top 25 tech industry job growth jurisdictions in America ended up making the opposite point of its pro-smart-growth title. Currently-urbanizing Montgomery County failed to make the list, and so did the District, which is ostensibly the model MoCo is now following in regards to development and transportation policies. Not even Arlington or Fairfax are on it. Who in the DC region did make the list?

Exurban Loudoun and Prince William Counties. Neither of which is known for nightlife, transit-oriented urban centers, or other amenities that ostensibly draw "the young and the hip" to urban areas. While the article touts an "urban renaissance," the most recent data shows that urban growth has stalled or is going backwards, and the suburbs are now growing faster than cities. Did you know that, when you are using the internet, 70% of your data is streaming through Loudoun County? If anything, the establishment of Loudoun and Prince William as tech growth centers makes the case for an Outer Beltway even stronger, to manage the workers commuting there. It also again shows the foresight in the planning of the Silver Line through booming-but-squarely-suburban Tysons out to Loudoun.

Another intriguing data point in the study, is the growth rate of non-tech private jobs between 2007-2012. Loudoun (8.7%) and Prince William (6.8%) have had an astounding growth rate, only behind the Texas Miracle of Denton County (11.9%) and Kings County, NY (11.2%).

The success of DC's exurbs - listed alongside New York City, San Francisco and other major urban employment centers on this Top 25 - proves the point again that all of the alcohol, nightlife and high-density development in the world won't assure economic development nor job growth. No one would consider Loudoun or Prince William a hot nightlife spot. Yet both are among the 25 most attractive places to skilled tech workers. That's because they have the companies - and most importantly, the jobs. Conversely, think about Las Vegas. Vegas has arguably the best nightlife in America. But young workers are not flocking to Vegas, because it doesn't have the corporate headquarters and jobs.

Jobs are the biggest draw for college graduates, making economic development - and the attraction of major firms with high-wage jobs - far more critical than high-density development or nightlife. That also includes considering what else Loudoun and Prince William are doing right, that Montgomery County isn't.